Top New Stories
1. DoCoMo hits the wall - subscribers fall after portability
2. Bouygues Telecom improves revenue and profit
3. DoCoMo faces off subscriber losses and focuses on Japan
4. DoCoMo pan-Asian alliance brands itself
5. Handset costs hinder i-mode rollout
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1. DoCoMo hits the wall - subscribers fall after portability
DoCoMo Chief Executive Nakamura started the year mildly bullish in the buildup to number portabiity in Japan, expressing confidence that DoCoMo would retain its subscribers and even attract some from the other carriers, particularly Vodafone or Softbank Mobile as it became.
As the year progressed he became neutral and joined all the analysts who predicted "no great change" in subscriber distribution. We reported in September how the outlook was as clear as mud. However, quietly DoCoMo hedged its bets with a spokesman quietly slipping out during this period that they at least hoped to retain their share of corporate customers.
Well the reality was far worse than expected, and perhaps we at i-mode Business Strategy can gloat and say that when the analysts were neutral we predicted:
Let's be more bold and state that KDDI and Softbank Mobile are the front-runners to gain, and DoCoMo the most likely to lose subscribers - in terms of percentage of total market.
Most reports on the November numbers don't really get the message, with reports having nothing in particular to say although some reported that DoCoMo had lost about 1 million 2G subscribers without saying that they had switched to their 3G service.
KDDI gained 479,600 in November on a net basis (taking it to 25.319 million users at the end of November). DoCoMo lost 17,500 subscribers (and said that it had about 52.126 million users at the end of November). The number of subscribers to DoCoMo's 3G FOMA service rose by a net 928,900 to 30.839 million, while the number of its 2G MOVA service users fell by a net 946,300 to 21.287 million.
Our buddies at Wireless Watch Japan picked up the hot potato and shouted that:
"this might well be the first time that market leader NTT DoCoMo has ever announced a net client loss: -17,500. Perhaps even more shocking was the fact that their prized i-mode service also shed 56,200 subscribers!"
Shocking indeed and serious enough to give Mr Nakamura a severe headache.
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2. Bouygues Telecom improves revenue and profit
DoCoMo i-mode alliance partner Bouygues Telecom reported slightly falling EBITDA margin - down by 2.5 percentage points to 30.9% in the first nine months of the year - due to marketing costs of aggressive customer acquistion, although its parent Bouygues Group was on a massive upswing in revenue and profitability - unveiling a 36% lift in 3rd qtr profit.
Some analysts said that the nine-month result put Bouygues Telecoms ahead of forecasts in both revenue and profits, although the Bouygues Group did not break out the segments.
Rumours persist that Bouygues will sell its telecoms unit, although Deputy Chief Executive Olivier Poupart-Lafarge told a conference call with analysts "We are not considering selling Bouygues Telecom". If it did in any case Bouygues will achieve a heady price and profit for the parent as Bouygues Telecom is certainly on a growth trajectory and one of the besxt run operations in Europe and the most successful i-mode alliance partner.
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3. DoCoMo faces off subscriber losses and focuses on Japan
How is DoCoMo handling their first-ever net client loss, following the second month of number portability in Japan?
Bravely!
"We aim for an upward trend," DoCoMo's Executive Senior Vice President Masayuki Hirata said in an interview with Reuters "on the sidelines of the ITU Telecom World 2006 forum in Hong Kong".
"At the moment, there's no discussion for a serious price cut," he said. "We expect gains from new sources of revenue we're trying to expand into as we see limited contributions from subscriber growth in a mature market."
Hirata-san also said something else very interesting in the interview - "We're not like the other global carriers who looks abroad for subscriber growth," Hirata said. "We're focused on Japan."
Really! Small comfort for its i-mode alliance partners, and for the value of its many recent minority investments - makes one ask "why bother?".
4. DoCoMo pan-Asian alliance brands itself
The pan-Asian operator alliance, created in April 2006, has announced its new brandname CONEXUS Mobile Alliance as well as welcoming the Philippines' mobile operator, Smart Communications into the group.
With SMART's participation, the alliance has expanded its coverage footprint to over 130 million mobile subscribers in nine countries and regions. The alliance's other members are Far EasTone Telecommunications (Taiwan), Hutchison Essar (India), Hutchison Telecommunications (Hong Kong and Macau), Indosat (Indonesia), KT Freetel (South Korea), DoCoMo (Japan) and StarHub (Singapore).
DoCoMo is of course the driver, and this alliance aims to combate Singtel's Bridge Mobile alliance, in offering conventional roaming via GSM/GPRS and/or W-CDMA networks, and also CONEXUS has started working on roaming with HSDPA technology (including for i-mode). CONEXUS is the bigger of the two alliances by subscribers, touhcing 130 million. (Unfortunately a Google Search for "conexus mobile alliance" does not yield a website!)
5. Handset costs hinder i-mode rollout
The global roll-out of i-mode has been plagued by something perhaps least expected - a lack of competitive handsets in each new market.
This plagued KPN as the original i-mode alliance partner, led to MTS in Russia cancelling its alliance,
is holding back O2's subscriptions, and in Australia Telstra only ever released one 3G i-mode handset before walking away from the whole arrangement. That one was (is) the NEC600i and while a nice piece of engineering it was a handset that you'd buy your uncle for Xmas - it was never going to sell to the target market.
Right now Smart Communication in the Philipines is facing the same issue - and they've told DoCoMo that this one issue is critical.
"Until such time 3G handset cost falls to $100 each, it would be difficult to push the rollout of 3G in our country," said Smart Communications' wholesale business group head Roger Quevedo.
"We are still waiting for Nokia Corp.'s handset using imode," said Quevedo.
DoCoMo is acutely aware and is squeezing handset makers. Executive Senior Vice President Masayuki Hirata said (in the interview with Reuters quoted above) DoCoMo was squeezing base handset costs with new chips and software platforms while trying to figure out which advanced technologies to add to match consumer demand.
"We will be paying more attention how we order handsets from our suppliers," Hirata said.
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